Roadmap to Queensland's Renewable Energy Target (QRET)

Concluding a three year Advance Queensland Industry Fellowship in 2020, Dr Lynette Molyneaux has developed a Roadmap to Queensland’s Renewable Energy Target (QRET). The Roadmap is informed by the outcomes of modelling electricity demand-supply balance at each node in the National Electricity Market in the year 2030. Read more here.

In 2020, Dr Molyneaux briefed Queensland Government policy makers, and relevant industry participants, on the modelling outcomes that informed the Roadmap. Modelling outcomes indicate that achieving high levels of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Queensland electricity supply is possible but will depend on effective communication between the Queensland Government, investors and electricity industry participants. Recommendations based on the research findings include:

1. Withdrawal of coal generator units should be based on nodal location of renewable energy, and transmission infrastructure to reach the large demand centres of Brisbane and Gladstone, not on age or other considerations. The modelling outcomes indicate that partial closures at Gladstone, Stanwell and Tarong provide the lowest level of Energy-Gaps utilising the existing network capacity, rather than full closures at Gladstone and Tarong.

2. To support investment, planning permission for VRE generation should be based on existing available or planned transmission infrastructure to reach the large demand centres.

3. Location of VRE is fundamental to the success of a transition to high levels of VRE. Transmission network augmentation may be required in the following transmission corridors if high levels of VRE is to reach demand centres consistently:

• Central West Queensland to Gladstone
• Wide Bay to North Moreton (Brisbane North)
• South West Queensland to South Moreton (Brisbane South)

4. Higher levels of energy storage capacity are important for securing a managed transition, including shifting VRE from periods of over-supply to periods of high-demand on a daily or weekly basis, but also for longer-term seasonal storage capacity required during extended periods of low VRE supply. Generating adequate returns for investors from infrequent dispatch of energy from storage may be challenging, so consideration should be given to incentive or ownership models to encourage investment in long-term seasonal storage capacity.

5. Achieving QRET will require coordinated effort from the Queensland Government, the Queensland generators, Powerlink, AEMO, AEMC and investors. The Queensland Government can direct its state owned electricity supply entities to follow a prescribed plan in an attempt to achieve QRET or higher targets, but if NEM governing bodies are not equally committed to those plans, they will not succeed. There is a need for a joint collaborative body tasked with developing a roadmap to achieve QRET comprised of investor groups, AEMO, AEMC, Powerlink, Queensland generators and the Queensland Government. Roadmaps developed through this collaborative body would give greater security to investors, and the Queensland public, of the achievement of high levels of VRE in Queensland electricity supply.

The following reports make up the information package for Roadmap to Queensland Energy Target 2020 Report:

1. Roadmap to Queensland Renewable Energy Target Report 2020
   Main report of summarised findings for investment scenarios for Queensland
2. Roadmap to QRET Scenario Comparison Appendix 
   Detail of findings for 16 investment scenarios for Queensland
3. Roadmap to QRET ANEM NEM Nodal Modelling Report Final 
   Technical modelling assumptions
4. Roadmap to QRET Addendum PLsB 
   NSW, VIC, SA, TAS modelling outcomes for single scenario, Pipeline Scenario B
5. Roadmap to QRET Addendum PLsB QLD ONLY 
   QLD only modelling outcomes for single scenario, Pipeline Scenario B
6. Roadmap to QRET Addendum NoPHPLsB 
   NSW, VIC, SA, TAS modelling outcomes for single scenario, Pipeline Scenario B with no new Pump Hydro
7. Roadmap to QRET Addendum NoPHPLsB QLD ONLY 
   QLD only modelling outcomes for single scenario, Pipeline Scenario B with no new Pump Hydro
8. Roadmap to QRET Addendum 2040C 
   NSW, VIC, SA, TAS modelling outcomes for single scenario, ISP Central Scenario in 2040
9. Roadmap to QRET Addendum 2040C QLD ONLY
   QLD only modelling outcomes for single scenario, ISP Central Scenario in 2040